No, We Didn’t Lose in SCOTUS
The GOP lawsuits against new Pennsylvania and North Carolina election laws did not lose in SCOTUS. Some leftist outlets and “journalists” are pretending the GOP lost, but most Democrat outlets are now warning Democrats it’s too late to vote by mail.
All SCOTUS denied was an “expedited” review. They didn’t deny a review. They had to deny an expedited review because there’s simply not enough time to hear the case before Election Day. Amy Coney Barrett is still trying to get moved into her new office and hasn’t even had time to look at the case yet.
Here’s the way it’s going to work: Ballots that come in after election day will be segregated and left out of the official count. If Trump wins by a landslide (or Biden, but that’s impossible at this point), there will be nothing to hear because those few ballots won’t affect the outcome either way.
If it’s close, where the post-election-day ballots could decide the election, the Supreme Court will hear the case.
Democrats like Eric Holder, and outlets like Vox, are already warning Democrats not to mail in any more ballots. They’re telling Democrats that, if they haven’t voted yet, they have to vote in person or drop off their ballots in person before election day for their votes to be counted.
They know that if Biden “wins,” it will be very close and SCOTUS will dump the ballots that arrive after election day.
This take on what’s happened comes not only from outlets like Vox, but from my SCOTUS source who has never yet been wrong. And the top link above is to an article by a former U.S. Attorney who says the same thing.
Also, the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals just blocked Minnesota counties from accepting ballots after 8 pm on Election Day, prompting Amy Klobuchar to panic tweet and Nancy Pelosi to announce Biden would be inaugurated as president no matter whom voters choose, lol. See the Minnesota section below for the Dem hysteria.
Now, on to the numbers, which I will be updating throughout the day.
Nevada Election Update
A Democrat cheerleader Nevada election forecaster has been predicting that Trump’s rural vote lead in 2020 would be the same as 2016, or 58k votes. Then this week he started hedging and saying, well, maybe it will go up to 70k. Then, okay, it may go up to 80k.
At 58k, Trump lost Nevada by only 27k, so…
Meanwhile, as of yesterday, votes in Nevada’s red rural counties are up by 40,000 over the same time in 2016.
This morning Dems have an early vote lead of 1.8 points and falling. That’s according to TargetSmart, which incorporates likely crossovers based on the demographics of the voters. Trump campaign internal polls confirm TargetSmart, as they show Trump is winning increased numbers of blacks, Hispanics and Mormons here. Without crossover modelling, the Dem early vote lead is 6 pts.
In 2016 at this point, Dems had an early vote lead of 10.3 points.
In any case, the Democrat early vote lead is only 45k votes. It just tipped under their 2016 early vote lead with five days of early voting to go.
I’d say we’re about to see the Dems pay for the 16,000 service workers (think the Democrats’ Culinary Union vote machine) who have moved out of Nevada since the Democrat governor’s Bat Plague lockdowns began.
A Day without a Florida Update is Like a Day without Sunshine
I was wrong about Dems having an 88k early vote lead at the start of Election Day 2016. They had a 96k early vote lead and Trump won by 113k.
That means Dems need to have a 209k early vote lead on Election Day morning to be competitive.
The Dem lead is 163,611 at 6 pm ET today in Florida and falling at a rate of 50k a day. This is without an update today from very big and very red Polk County, whose reporting is down.
I will mention that TargetSmart estimates that the Dem lead is down to only 57k votes, or 0.8%. That’s based on the demographics of who has actually turned out (white working-class vote is surging by up to 50% in places) and includes likely crossover votes. TargetSmart estimates Dems had a 262k early vote lead at this point in 2016, or 196k greater than now.
TargetSmart’s crossover modeling is important this election because the Democrat and Republican party coalitions are rapidly changing. The GOP is now the party of working people and the Democrats are becoming the party of elites. It tends to take a few years after a Democrat or Republican starts voting for the other party before they actually change their voter registration. In some states, like North Carolina, huge swaths of Democrats who consistently vote straight Republican never change their voter registration.
Republicans still have 228k more supervoters yet to vote than Democrats.
Because Indies are turning out in greater percentages in red counties, and overall turnout is down in blue counties, Indies are likely skewing red.
Polls show that from 37% to 41% of Republicans in Florida intend to vote on Election Day, but only 12% of Dems. At 50% turnout, that would be an Election Day lead for Republicans of at least 600k votes.
You can see why Steve Schale has stopped his Superpac ad spending for Biden in Florida. Schale was the Obama campaign’s Florida state director and knows the state inside and out.
Dems in Freefall in North Carolina
The Democrat early vote lead in North Carolina has fallen to 285k. Democrats had a 310k early vote lead in North Carolina in 2016 the morning of Election Day and lost the state by 3 points.
Democrats are trending for only a 230k early vote lead, suggesting the GOP will win North Carolina by 4 points.
The black share of the vote has fallen a little more to 19.78%. Obama had a 23% black vote share and only won the state by a point.
The black share of the vote will likely continue trending down to about 5 point down from 2016, with 15% of those who vote voting for Trump. This would give Biden only 81% of the potential black vote. Hillary had 88% in 2016 and lost the state.
Even better than the white share of the NC vote rising from 70% to 73% is that in 2016, only 30% of white voters had less than a college degree (Trump’s best demographic). This year it’s 44.4%.
We are seeing the same thing in Florida and Nevada. In Florida, Democrat turnout is highest in older, more working-class retiree counties that Trump won in 2016.
Trump Set to Win the National Popular Vote
Applied nationally, a -5% black turnout + 15% Trump vote of those who turn out mean approximately 4-5 million missing Democrat black votes. With the missing college student vote as high as 1.5 million, plus roughly 1 to 1.5 million Hispanic voters that have switched to Trump, Trump is poised to win the national popular vote by 6 to 8 million votes even without the new working class voters, former non-voters, he is bringing to the polls.
I’ve seen estimates ranging from 5 to 18 million for the number of these new working class voters, with Trump estimated to get just under 2/3 of them.
Red Sun Rising in Arizona
Dems had a 74k early vote lead yesterday morning, down from 115k at the start of the week.
This afternoon, it’s down to 55,734 with a Republican lead in Maricopa County (Phoenix)!
Colorado Referendum on Late-Term Abortion
A Colorado ballot initiative aimed at banning late-term abortions in most circumstances is polling too close to call. But it should really turn out conservative voters who sat out 2016 after their first choice, Ted Cruz, lost the nomination to Trump.
The Democrat early vote lead in CO has dropped this morning to 7.6 points from 9 points yesterday and 30 points two weeks ago, with five days of early in-person voting to go. The Dem vote lead is only 160k votes.
Polls show 37% to 41% of Republicans intend to vote in person on Election Day. That’s three times the percentage of Dems who intend to vote on Election Day. At 50% turnout, that’s at least 128k extra GOP votes.
And both Colorado and Virginia are likely doing better than the numbers suggest because we’re seeing a MUCH higher percentage of white males and non-college voters showing up. As I mentioned, this demographic has increased its vote share by 50% in North Carolina.
Both Colorado and Virginia are in play.
Biden is Rushing to Minnesota
I haven’t been posting on MN because it’s so close. And I still have to look at today’s numbers.
But think of it this way: Minnesota hasn’t gone red since 1972 and Biden is rushing up there to campaign tomorrow.
And the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals just blocked acceptance of Minnesota ballots received after 8 p.m. on Election Day, or 3 p.m. for mail-in ballots delivered in person. They said that the Minnesota legislature has the authority to establish the manner of conducting the presidential election in Minnesota, not the Democrat Secretary of State who rewrote the election rules himself.
You can enjoy Amy Klobuchar’s panic tweet about this ruling here.
My SCOTUS source says the 8th Circuit is very Trump-friendly, so this will not be reversed en banc. Minnesota is his pick for Bush v Gore 2.0, with SCOTUS stepping in to save the state.
Georgia Republican Blowout
Republicans have increased their early vote lead in Georgia from 5.5 points yesterday to 6.2 points today, according to TargetSmart. That’s 196k votes. And do I need to remind you again that more Republicans than Dems intend to vote on Election Day?
The economy is roaring (except maybe in Dem-controlled states like Nevada). The Atlanta Fed just revised its GDPNow forecast for the third quarter to 37% growth.
If you think that’s bad for Trump, I want an introduction to your dealer.
I’ll be updating this post throughout the day.
Dem Turnout Collapse?
TargetSmart estimates that, with only five days of early voting to go, Democrat turnout is only 35 million votes so far. The top estimate I’ve seen for Dem Election Day turnout is 16% in an Economist poll (with 41% of GOPs voting ED). Most polls show around 12% of Dem turnout on Election Day.
I’ve seen estimates by smart numbers people that Biden’s vote total will struggle to get to 50 million. I’ve also seen estimates that Hillary’s vote count in 2016 included 10 million fraudulent votes.
Today in Rigged Polling
Richard Baris of Big Data Poll (PPD in 2016, one of three that got the election right) says Emerson college had Trump +1 nationally but fudged the results to Biden +5 because Emerson was afraid of the backlash.
That is why Emerson has Biden with 99% Democrat support when it’s really far below that.
Today From Hunter Biden’s Laptop
You may recall that the fake Steele dossier Hillary paid for included claims that Russia offered Trump 16% of Rosneft to circumvent sanctions. How ironic that it was the Bidens who actually were doing the deal!
FBI Director Christopher Wray represented Rosneft in the deal.
The good news is that the DOJ confirmed today that a criminal investigation into Hunter Biden and his “associates” (Joe Biden?) was opened in 2019 and is ongoing.
The investigation is focused on money laundering.
Tony Bobulinski was interviewed for five hours on October 23 as a material witness in this investigation and his cell phones were examined.
A Rasmussen poll I saw within the last day or two has found that a majority of likely voters believe Joe Biden accepted bribes for corrupt acts. And the group that believes in the highest numbers (almost 2/3) and most strongly that Biden is corrupt are black voters.