What Florida Ballot Requests are Telling Us

First Data on Actual Party Enthusiasm and Turnout

Typical Trump Rally

In Florida, mail-in ballots are not automatically sent to every voter.  However, any registered voter can request an absentee ballot.  The difference between mail-in ballots and absentee ballots is that when you request an absentee ballot, you have to provide proof of your identity and address.  It’s rather a pain in the neck, just like voting in person.

Because they require a voter to do a little work beyond answering a phone, absentee ballot requests are a strong predictor of voter enthusiasm and turnout differences between the parties.  Multiple Harvard studies have shown that Democrats tend to overstate their likelihood of voting to pollsters, while Republicans understate it.  (In fact, propaganda pollsters use that difference to rig their polls.)  But absentee ballot requests provide actual data on relative enthusiasm between the parties.

So far Florida has gotten 3.2 million ballot requests, with 2 million of those from Democrats and 1.2 million from Republicans.  What does this tell us about likely voter enthusiasm and turnout?

We know from Pew that 65% of Florida Democrats say they intend to vote by mail, largely because of fear of Covid-19, while only 30% of Republicans intend to vote by mail.  We also know Trump got 4.6 million votes in Florida in 2016, while Hillary got 4.5 million votes.  (Those are the official numbers anyway.  Witnesses say Brenda Snipes, the Broward County Supervisor of Elections, destroyed tens of thousands of Republican ballots and filled out 80,000 fraudulent Democrat ballots with a small team of cheats.  But we’ll ignore that for this post.)

Typical Biden “Rally”

For Biden to match Hillary’s result, we’d expect 65% of 4.5 million voters to request absentee ballots, or 2.9 million voters.  However, it’s a little more complicated than that.  We know that 30% of requested absentee ballots don’t get returned (in the Florida primaries this year, 41% of ballots were never returned).

We also know that, of returned ballots in this year’s primaries, roughly 25% were disqualified, with Democrat ballots getting disqualified at twice the rate (roughly 33%) of Republican ballots (roughly 16%).

So Democrats are 900,000 ballot requests below what they need to compete in Florida. With non-returns, they’re at half of what they need, or 1.5 million short.  With likely rejected ballots, they’re roughly 2 million ballots short of what they need to compete at Hillary’s level.

With 30% of Florida Republicans planning to vote absentee, the GOP is 200,000 ballot requests below the level they need to compete at Trump’s level in 2016.  With non-returns, they’re half a million short.  With rejected ballots, they’re 700,000 short.

So, Democrats are 2.1 million ballot requests short of a tie at the moment.  Republicans are only 700,000 ballot requests short of a tie, or 1/3 the Democrat deficit.

Florida voters have until October 24th to request an absentee ballot but this ratio is unlikely to change by Election Day.  Democrats’ strategy of using Bat Plague for mass mail-in vote fraud will prove to be the biggest blunder in political history.

By the way, Trump got nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for a second time today, this time for the peace deal he helped negotiate between Serbia and Kosovo.  A Swedish MP nominated him.  His first Nobel Peace Prize nomination came for the peace deal he helped negotiate between Israel and the UAE.  More good news from the Middle East is going to be breaking tonight.

 

14 Responses to “What Florida Ballot Requests are Telling Us”

  1. Arnold Snyder

    Wynn is suing that mob responsible for the Labor Day weekend brawl in their lobby for $15k.

    A couple of members of the group had rented an Encore duplex for the weekend. They had a couple of dozen other people staying there unregistered.

    The Wynn spokesman all but says this is what happens when you let in people from California.

    https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/crime/wynn-files-lawsuit-after-labor-day-weekend-violence-on-the-las-vegas-strip/article_7d28ed16-f46b-11ea-b73d-9f12f4eb0bbf.html

    Reply
  2. Aaron

    I dont think race has much to do with the tipping ratio. At least not when i was a server. The new vegas crowd is a bunch of low rollers because Gov Newsome has made CA somehow worse than NV. These are lower middle class folks with less desposible cash to throw around but they want somewhere to go and say Hey Vegas is Open right! They’re also bored and disappointed with the new vegas experience. The Wynn is right to sue thier asses. High rollers expect a certain level of perks that Vegas isnt allowed to provide (shows, girls, club access, table games with a happy crowd) so they’re staying home or going elsewhere.

    Reply
    • Arnold Snyder

      Aaron, Gov Newsom has made CA somehow worse than NV.

      The fire hellscape helped. I saw a video of Newsom speaking in a burned-out area. He looked giddy with joy.

      Reply
  3. Bill

    I used to jokingly say trump could gain peace in the Middle East and democrats would complain. Now it is seriously happening.

    Reply
  4. Arnold Snyder

    PA reopening? U.S. District Judge William Stickman IV rules that Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf’s closing of non-life-sustaining businesses and restrictions on gatherings were unconstitutional.

    The case was filed May 7. Wolf violated the 1st and 14th Amendments to the U.S. Constitution: https://triblive.com/local/regional/federal-judge-rules-gov-wolfs-shutdown-orders-were-unconstitutional/

    The plaintiffs’ attorney says the finding that the lockdowns were unconstitutional means nobody can ever be locked down in Pennsylvania again and everyone is now free to reopen, have large gatherings, etc.

    He also says the ruling opens the door to business suing the state for compensation for losses due to the unconstitutional shutdown.

    Reply

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